Strategic analysis by: Ibrahim Kaban*
- Relationship formation
The nature of the formation of the relationship between the United States of America and the Syrian Democratic Forces, which militarily represent the Autonomous Administration located in northern and eastern Syria, including the Kurdish regions, after the expansion of the circle of ISIS control over large parts of Syria and Iraq at the end of 2014, and it was, in fact, a real dilemma for any An evolution of the reality of the revolutions that broke out in the region and spread to Syria, and was at the height of ISIS devouring the Syrian and Iraqi oil regions, and expanding towards the Kurdish regions in the two countries. Considering that these areas were of value and geopolitical and military importance to the United States of America and the Western powers, and the extent of the uses of dictatorial regimes (Syrian - Iranian - Turkish) for extremist organizations that put American forces into the quagmire of Iraq during 2005-2009 and disrupted American expansion in the Middle East as an international force that appeals to democracy and freedoms and works to overthrow the abhorrent dictatorships. In addition to the expansion of ISIS and posed a direct threat to the Syrian revolution on the one hand, and its ability to influence social and media discourse on wide Syrian and Iraqi segments. It posed a direct threat to the interests of the United States and its allies in the Middle East (Arabian Gulf - Israel).
America found the expansion of ISIS a great threat to the security and stability of its interests and its allies in the Middle East, and there was no suitable gateway for intervention except from the Syrian Kurdish region, which witnessed violent confrontations between Kurdish fighters and ISIS elements supported from the neighborhood. Hence the American support for the Syrian Kurdish forces, which expanded with the formation of the Syrian Democratic Forces in 2015, with the participation of Arabs and Christians under Kurdish leadership.
The US-European military relations and cooperation with the Syrian Democratic Forces deepened due to the need of the two parties for each other, the Syrian Democratic Forces that need Western air coverage to confront ISIS and the dangers posed by Turkey and the Syrian regime against the Autonomous Administration region in northern and eastern Syria, and the Western powers that found the expansion of ISIS a serious dilemma threatening security Its Arab and Israeli allies and the future of its interests in the Middle East.
The stage of strategic transformation
During the past six years, the Syrian Democratic Forces have tried to transform this military relationship in the face of terrorism and prevent the return of the Syrian regime to the Autonomous Administration areas, as well as blocking Turkish threats, into a political process and real support adopted by the United States, but the Americans did not take practical steps on this path because of the American relations - Turkish, although there are understandings related to development and support for development projects in the Autonomous Administration region, but the American view in dealing with the Autonomous Administration did not come out of the framework of support in the face of terrorist groups, and a comprehensive solution for all of Syria without part of it.
The Syrian Democratic Forces and the Autonomous Administration did not participate in any of the Syrian opposition’s dialogues that had an international character, although the Geneva process was sponsored by the United States and Europe, who are allied with it, and did not impose them as actual partners in the Syrian situation on these conferences, and that raised many question marks about the American’s abuse With the Syrian Democratic Forces, on the other hand, American officials have repeatedly talked about the nature of relations with the Kurdish-led forces in Syria, and that this partnership is related to fighting terrorism, while Russia and Turkey were leading convergence dialogues to end the Syrian armed opposition directed against the regime by changing the barrel of its gun to fighting. Against the Kurds under the pretext of the Syrian Democratic Forces, in return for withdrawing these groups from all the Syrian interior regions, which were replaced by Iranian militias, and Syria was effectively divided between Iranian and Turkish influence, the regime and the opposition. At a time when the Syrian Democratic Forces maintained enabling military relations with the Western powers led by the United States, these forces developed into a huge institution that manages a third of Syria, especially its strategic areas.
Intersection of interests or conflict of interest
The concept of intersection of interests between the Western Coalition and the Syrian Democratic Forces focuses on the European-American-Arab presence in Syria, and the reduction of the Iranian-Turkish role, although Iran is the greatest threat to the United States and its allies by virtue of the Turkish presence in the Western club, but the vast areas controlled by the Syrian forces Democracy blocks Turkey from accessing the Syrian fossil resources and prevents Iran for the same purpose, meaning the dual threat posed by the two regional powers on one level, and there is no greater danger than the other for the Syrian Kurds. Thus, the contribution made by the Syrian Democratic Forces in limiting the Iranian-Turkish role was extremely important for the Western and Arab powers. However, the dramatic transformations that the region witnessed, and Turkey's return to the point of rapprochement with the Arab countries, and the return to the Western fold, in fact posed a new dilemma. For most of these forces to show negative steps backward, Turkey's geographical and military importance for all, and the return of the conflict between Western countries, Russia and China contributed to Turkey's restoration of some of its previous privileges with the Western-Arab powers, especially since Turkey's loss in NATO constitutes a real shock to the Western club if it dies. Turkey, in particular, played a prominent role as border policeman for the alliance during the decades of the Cold War.
Despite the Turkish-Russian rapprochement, which is sometimes characterized by strategy, the Turkish regime is fully aware that if it leaves the Western club, Turkey's future will be division and collapse.
For the Syrian Democratic Forces, Turkey poses the greatest threat to the security of Syria, and the method of its military intervention in the Kurdish areas was characterized by absolute brutality, and those fears increased after its implementation of a series of demographic change operations against the Kurdish population in favor of Turkmen and Arab communities after the agreement with the Iranian party to empty the Sunni Arab region in favor of Shiite expansion, and the settlement of Sunni Arabs in the Kurdish region after the Kurds were expelled from it by force. The Turkish plans resulted in the displacement of more than a million Kurds from the regions of Afrin, Qabasin, Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad, and this was a fatal blow to the Kurdish regions that emptied up to 60%, and the Turkish regime is trying to complete its plan to empty the borders at a depth of up to 40%. The region is considered the original areas of the Kurds, that is, the elimination of the Kurdish presence.
Confronting Iranian militias in return for guarantees to stop Turkish threats and Iranian reaction
It is not easy to agree to confront the Iranian militias without guarantees to prevent the Turkish occupation, and it is not possible to engage in battles against the Iranian regime without international protection, because confronting Iran necessarily means an all-out war, and this means entering into a great quarrel that will not be in the interest of the Kurds for whatever reasons, especially without guarantees.
The Western and Arab powers, led by the United States of America, are supposed to provide guarantees to the Kurds and the Syrian Democratic Forces in Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey, because absolutely confronting Iran will pave the way for a century of war in the Middle East, and Iran will be a permanent war with the Kurds, and since they do not have deterrent forces, pushing the Kurds To this battle will be lost without great guarantees.
The Americans and their allies in the Middle East must understand the sensitivity of this process in relation to the Kurdish situation. Turkey is waiting for Iran to join it in an all-out war against the Kurds, and the center of action will be the Kurdistan region, and the Iranian regime is not like the Arab regimes that have been overthrown. All countries in the Middle East have strategic, security and military relations with Turkey, and therefore the Iranian-Turkish move against the Kurds will be by all means, and this means accepting the American offer for the Syrian Democratic Forces in the face of Iran, military, security and political suicide without guarantees. Consequently, the United States of America and its European and Arab allies should provide the greatest amount of guarantees to the Kurds, the Syrian Democratic Forces, and even to the Kurdistan region of Iraq.
Compatibility or divorce process
It is clear that if the United States and its allies do not provide guarantees to the Kurds and their forces, there will be no strategic agreements, and the partnership between the two parties will remain limited and linked to the time of need only, and it is likely that it will end in the coming periods of conflict of interest.
The Arab-Western media will promote (The Kurds and the Syrian Democratic Forces do not want to fight against Iran).
While the Kurds and the Syrian Democratic Forces will focus through their statements on their demand (we want guarantees) regarding the Turkish file, and providing support in the event of an Iranian reaction against them in the Middle East.
Between the two tracks, it is possible to find a consensual formula that brings the two parties together on one track in confronting the Iranian militias, in a more precise sense, to provide some guarantees in return for engaging in this battle, without which it is absolutely impossible. The one who will pay the price is not the Arab Gulf states, Israel, the United States of America and its European allies, but the Kurds and their Arab allies will alone pay the heavy price if they do not receive any guarantees to protect them later, and the security of the participants in the battles against the Iranian militias in Syria must be the same as the security of Israel. Because the Shiite militias in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon will not stand idly by, but rather they will carry out comprehensive attacks on the Autonomous Administration region, the Iraqi Kurdistan region and the Qandil Mountains, and this means Turkey's intervention as well, and thus will be the crushing death of any special Kurdish situation in Iraq and Syria, which is what the Turkish regime is waiting for and planning for him.
At the same time, if the United States of America abandons the Syrian Democratic Forces, it will constitute a major problem in Syria, because the American cover is an urgent necessity in protecting the Autonomous Administration area, and lifting the western cover necessarily means preparing for confirmed Turkish attacks, in agreement with the Syrian and Iranian regimes, and with Russian sponsorship. More precisely, this path is also tantamount to military and political suicide.
So both tracks are not in favor of the Americans and the Syrian Democratic Forces, and it requires both parties (America - the great powers) and (the Syrian Democratic Forces - the local forces in Syria) to search for points of convergence and a path agreed upon by the two parties in order to ensure the American survival and the continuation of the Syrian Democratic Forces and reduce The Iranian role in Syria and stopping the Turkish attacks.
Result
Turkey will take advantage of these transformations and contradictions between the United States of America and the Syrian Democratic Forces, and work to deepen them in the next stage by offering the Americans alternatives, and the possibility of forming an alternative army for the Syrian Democratic Forces from the Arab clans loyal to it or that will join it later, under the banner of fighting expansion. The Iranian Shiite, and the funding will naturally be provided by the Arab countries, which in turn also benefit from these transformations and the Iranian threat, and Turkey will not present any requests to the Americans except for the only request (the United States abandoning the Syrian Democratic Forces), and of course there are tens of thousands of terrorist elements that have tendencies Extremists (the remnants of ISIS and al-Qaeda - Jabhat al-Nusra), managed and funded by Turkey for this purpose, along with formations that Turkey has equipped from the Syrian opposition loyal to Turkish objectives, under the banner: Expelling Iran means overthrowing Assad, and of course there are tens of thousands of Syrians and foreigners who implement Turkish projects without any Obstacles, and we saw them go to the Asitana agreements between the Russians, the Turks, and the Iranian-Syrian regimes, who together froze the Geneva process in favor of floating the regime, restoring it, and strengthening it against the armed groups of the opposition.
It is possible that Turkish propaganda and political Islam groups will start from a point (the Kurds and the Syrian Democratic Forces are allies of Iran, while Turkey secretly agrees with Iran on points for partial withdrawal of the militias from Syria), and the victory will be Turkey and its Syrian mercenary groups, and thus the Americans will be removed from the Kurds and the forces of Democratic Syria, and striking the unity of the Democratic Forces with religious and national slogans in favor of some clans that have close relations with Turkey and the regime.
At the current stage, Turkey will suffice with exerting the following pressures on the Syrian Democratic Forces, especially in the following files:
- The mechanism of cutting off water from the Autonomous Administration areas, a significant reduction in Syria's harvest from the Euphrates River, and striking strategic installations in the Autonomous Administration areas.
- The mechanism for using drones in the border areas, the purpose of which is to empty the region of the Kurdish population, and these operations will be intimidating against civilians, children and women without discrimination.
- The use of some Kurdish parties in the international community to refute the narrative of the Syrian Democratic Forces about the injustice of the occupied regions (Afrin .....), so that those Kurdish groups loyal to them affirm in meetings and conferences related to the Turkish occupation regions.
On the other hand, Israel will not be able to make any offers to the Kurds, due to its relations with Turkey, and the Turkish guarantee to Israel is to eliminate any threats posed by the extremist parties of the Syrian opposition against it, which are led and managed by Turkey. While no Arab country will provide guarantees to the Kurds and the Syrian Democratic Forces in the reaction of the Iranian regime against the Kurds, because these countries, in turn, need international guarantees in the face of Iran's threats. Iraq - Yemen - Syria - Lebanon).
* Political researcher, journalist writer, international trainer in human development with the German Board, and author of a number of books on strategic analysis. Director of the Geostrategic Network for Studies
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