Report prepared by: Geostrategic Studies Team
Introduction: Saudi-Iranian relations represent one of the most prominent and complex dynamics in the Middle East, characterized by long-standing tension and conflict due to ideological and political differences, as well as competition for regional influence. While there have been periods of dialogue and rapprochement, the relationship has largely been defined by conflict over the decades. This research aims to explore the key factors driving the Saudi-Iranian conflict, its historical roots, and its broader implications for the regional and global landscape.
I. Historical Roots of the Saudi-Iranian Conflict Although the Saudi-Iranian rivalry began to take shape in the 20th century, the historical and sectarian differences between the two nations stretch much further back in time. At its core, the relationship is based on religious divergence: Saudi Arabia is the center of Sunni Islam, while Iran is the hub of Shiite Islam.
The 1979 Iranian Revolution: The Islamic Revolution in Iran was a pivotal turning point in the relations between the two countries. After the overthrow of the Shah's regime and the establishment of an Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Khomeini, Iran began to export its revolutionary ideology across the region, which Saudi Arabia saw as a direct threat to its monarchy and its religious authority in the Muslim world. The fundamental disagreement centered on differing interpretations of Islamic governance, with Iran advocating for the "Guardianship of the Jurist" (Wilayat al-Faqih) while Saudi Arabia adhered to a strict Wahhabi Salafism.
The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988): Saudi Arabia supported Iraq during its war against Iran, further exacerbating tensions between Riyadh and Tehran. Saudi backing of Iraq was part of a broader regional strategy to prevent Iran from exporting its revolution to neighboring countries.
II. Competition for Regional Influence Both Saudi Arabia and Iran seek to expand their influence in the Middle East, leading to political and military confrontations in various countries.
Lebanon: Lebanon has been a key arena for the Saudi-Iranian rivalry. Iran backs Hezbollah, the powerful Shiite militant group, while Saudi Arabia supports Sunni factions and the Lebanese government opposed to Hezbollah's influence. This has deepened political and sectarian divides in Lebanon, where Saudi Arabia views Hezbollah as a destabilizing force, and Iran sees it as a strategic ally.
Iraq: After the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime, Iraq’s political landscape underwent a major shift, with Iran's influence over the newly empowered Shiite forces growing. Saudi Arabia was concerned about the rise of Iranian influence in Iraq, particularly with the ascendance of pro-Iranian factions. This period marked the beginning of a new phase of tension, as Saudi Arabia sought to counterbalance Iranian power in Iraq by supporting Sunni groups.
Yemen: Yemen has become one of the most prominent battlegrounds for direct Saudi-Iranian confrontation. The conflict escalated after Iranian-backed Houthi rebels took control of the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, in 2014. Saudi Arabia viewed the Houthi advance as a direct threat to its national security, especially given the Houthis' ties to Iran. Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a military coalition to support Yemen’s internationally recognized government against the Houthis. The war in Yemen is a vivid example of the proxy war between Riyadh and Tehran.
III. Political and Security Tensions In addition to regional competition, Saudi-Iranian relations have been marred by a series of political and security incidents that have further strained the relationship.
The 1987 Mecca Incident: During the Hajj pilgrimage in 1987, clashes between Iranian pilgrims and Saudi security forces resulted in the deaths of many pilgrims. Iran blamed Saudi Arabia for the incident, which led to a severe deterioration in relations.
The 2016 Saudi Embassy Attack: Following Saudi Arabia’s execution of the Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr in January 2016, the Saudi embassy in Tehran and its consulate in Mashhad were attacked by Iranian protesters. In response, Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic ties with Iran, pushing relations to their lowest point at the time.
IV. The Impact of the Saudi-Iranian Conflict on the Region
Sectarian Conflicts: The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran has exacerbated sectarian tensions across the region, notably in countries like Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. In these nations, both Riyadh and Tehran have sought to back their sectarian and political allies, fueling violence and deepening sectarian divides.
The Regional Order in the Gulf: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a crucial axis of Saudi Arabia’s regional policies. Through the GCC, Saudi Arabia has sought to rally support against Iranian influence, particularly from smaller Gulf states like Bahrain and Kuwait, which face internal security challenges due to their Shiite populations.
V. Attempts at De-escalation and Dialogue Despite the long-standing conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, there have been occasional efforts at de-escalation.
Dialogue Attempts: On several occasions, the two nations have engaged in talks aimed at reducing tensions, with countries like Iraq and Oman often acting as intermediaries. While these talks have sometimes led to temporary calm, deep-seated differences have continued to hinder real rapprochement.
Recent Changes: In recent years, especially after 2021, there have been signs of a shift toward direct dialogue between Riyadh and Tehran. Several global and regional factors have contributed to this, including changing U.S. policies toward the Middle East and the economic strains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Conclusion: Saudi-Iranian relations are deeply rooted in religious and ideological differences, as well as geopolitical competition. Despite periods of cautious rapprochement, tensions have largely dominated the relationship. The Saudi-Iranian conflict remains a key driver of regional instability in the Middle East, with direct implications for the security and political landscapes of countries like Yemen, Iraq, and Syria.
