Strategic Analysis by Ibrahim Kaban
The possibility of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Kurds transitioning from adversaries to allies of Turkey, should Turkey enter serious negotiations with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), is a complex scenario that is influenced by several historical, political, and geographical factors. To provide a deep and strategic analysis of this scenario, several dimensions need to be considered:
1. Historical Background
The relationship between Turkey and the Kurds, especially with the PKK, has been highly complicated. The PKK was founded in the 1970s with the goal of establishing an independent Kurdish state, and it has waged a guerrilla war against the Turkish government for over three decades. For Ankara, the PKK is considered a terrorist organization that threatens its national security.
On the other hand, in Syria, the "Syrian Democratic Forces" emerged as a multi-ethnic coalition led by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which is the Syrian offshoot of the PKK. During the Syrian war, the SDF became a key ally of the United States in fighting ISIS, but it raised concern in Turkey, which sees the YPG as a direct extension of the PKK.
2. Regional and Geopolitical Dynamics
Turkey considers the SDF a major security threat due to its control over large areas in northeastern Syria, particularly along the Turkish border. These areas form an extension of regions where Kurds seek autonomy or even independence in the future, something Ankara strongly opposes.
Moreover, geography plays a critical role in this dynamic. The regions in northeastern Syria, controlled by the SDF, hold significant strategic importance. They are directly adjacent to the Turkish border and represent a natural buffer zone that Ankara could use in case of any threats from the Kurds. Therefore, cooperation between Turkey and these forces would require major shifts in Turkey's security perceptions.
3. International Political Dimensions
The United States, as the primary ally of the SDF, plays an important role in this context. Washington prefers to maintain its relationship with the Kurds as part of counter-terrorism efforts and ensuring stability in the areas liberated from ISIS. On the other hand, Turkey is a strategic NATO ally of the United States, which places any American administration in a complicated position of trying to balance between the two sides.
If Turkey were to enter serious negotiations with the PKK, it might seek to reshape its relationship with the Kurds inside Syria as part of a broader strategy to neutralize the PKK itself. Instead of treating the SDF as a potential enemy, Turkey may see an opportunity to reduce the influence of the PKK by conditional cooperation with Kurdish forces in Syria, but this cooperation would require significant international mediation and security guarantees.
4. Shared Interests
Despite the historical enmity, Turkey and the Kurds in northern Syria (SDF) could find common interests. For example, Turkey aims to neutralize the PKK, while the SDF aims to ensure the safety and autonomy of its regions under any future political scenario for Syria.
Turkey might see the Syrian Kurds as partners in facing common threats, whether from Islamist extremist groups or even the Syrian regime. Given the current circumstances, the SDF might need regional support to ensure that the Syrian regime does not regain full control of northeastern Syria. In this context, the SDF could find an interest in negotiating with Turkey if Ankara guarantees their national and political rights.
5. Challenges to the Alliance
Despite the above points, there are major challenges to an actual alliance between Turkey and the Kurds. The first is the deep-seated mistrust between Turkey and the PKK. Several previous rounds of negotiations have collapsed because of this factor. If Turkey were to enter into new negotiations with the PKK, it would need to take unprecedented steps to build trust, such as releasing Kurdish leaders from Turkish prisons or making concessions on cultural and linguistic rights.
The second challenge is internal opposition within Turkey. There are strong nationalist factions within the Turkish political system, led by the ruling party and its allies, who strongly oppose any dialogue with the PKK or any concessions to the Kurds.
6. Strategic Analysis
If Turkey were to enter negotiations with the PKK and show a willingness to change its policy towards the Kurds in general, the regional balance of power could shift significantly. Turkish cooperation with the Syrian Democratic Forces could provide Ankara with an opportunity to expand its influence in Syria in a more stable way and achieve a kind of balance with other powers on the ground, such as Russia and Iran.
In return, a potential Kurdish-Turkish alliance could serve the interests of the Kurds by preserving their territorial gains and enhancing their negotiating position in any future talks about Syria's future. However, this alliance would remain fragile if the deep-rooted issues between the PKK and Turkey, particularly regarding Kurdish identity and sovereignty, are not addressed seriously.
7. Conclusion
The transition of the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Kurds from adversaries to allies of Turkey largely depends on the outcomes of any potential negotiations between Turkey and the PKK and the ability of both sides to overcome decades of mistrust and tensions. Common interests could provide a foundation for cooperation, but any potential alliance faces significant internal and external challenges, meaning that achieving this scenario would require a radical reordering of the positions and policies of the different parties involved.
