Written by: Bahram Isfahani
Special: Geostrategic Studies Network
The Iranian political arena is witnessing a state of deep division between the wings of the regime and within each wing, which reached its peak after the killing of Ibrahim Al-Raisi and Pezeshkian assuming his position. This internal conflict reflects major challenges related to the regime's legitimacy, foreign policy, and reformability, which may lead to serious political crises in the near future.
The newspaper “Ebtekar” points out “the conservatives’ blunders that led to their defeat.” This shows that the conservative wing made strategic mistakes in assessing the country's political situation. The Hamdley newspaper speaks of the "open wound of the Conservatives", suggesting the weakness of this wing after the electoral defeat. This division could lead to fundamental changes in the country's power structure and decision-making.
The increase in participation rate from 39% in the first round to 49.8% in the second round (Source: Hum Mihn newspaper) indicates an increase in people's interest in political participation. However, Ferhichtkan newspaper raises doubts about the validity of these numbers by asking the question: “Where did the 10% increase in participation come from?” This challenge to legitimacy could have a profound impact on the country's future political stability.
Shargh newspaper describes Pezeshkian as a “consensual president,” but the key question is whether designated institutions such as the Guardian Council and the Revolutionary Guards will cooperate with his programs. Etemad newspaper refers to this challenge by asking the question, “50 historic days of national reconciliation?!” This conflict could lead to serious political stalemate in the future.
The newspaper "Hum Mihin" talks about "Bezeshkian's victory message to the West." Pezeshkian believes that “Iran has fallen into an economic cage as a result of its foreign policy.” This view contradicts Jalili's position, which says: "Iran can advance by establishing stronger economic ties without the West." This difference of opinion could lead to serious tensions in Iranian foreign policy.
The newspaper "Joan" speaks of "the rebirth of revolution and the death of reformism and conservatism." This view shows that even within the regime, some believe that the era of traditional divisions is over. The newspaper "Hum Mihn" hopes to revive the reform movement with its article "Reform Again." This contradiction in views could lead to a political identity crisis in Iran.
The newspaper "Etemad" refers to "the coming troubles", which indicates the expectation of difficulties for the new government. The newspaper "Jahan Sanat", with its headline "Pezeshkian should not be afraid," refers to the possible pressures on the new president. These challenges could severely limit Pezeshkian's ability to implement his programs.
Overall, these facts show that the recent elections, instead of resolving the regime's internal problems, have deepened existing divisions. The regime's internal conflict revolves around various axes, including the regime's legitimacy, foreign policy, and the regime's ability to reform from within. These tensions could lead to serious political crises in the near future and may even confront the country's political structure with fundamental challenges. As the new president, Pezeshkian faces the difficult task of balancing the demands of the people with the restrictions of the regime, while different political factions each seek to impose their point of view.
