Prepared by: Jamal Mahmoud / Shana Qasim / Special for Geostrategic Studies
The Turkish-occupied areas in the western Euphrates, particularly in northern Syria, have been experiencing tensions and internal conflicts between Turkish-backed armed factions. These tensions and clashes between the Joint Forces on one side and factions like the "Northern Hawks Brigade" and "Al-Jabha Al-Shamiya" on the other, are part of a broader power struggle for control and influence over these vital areas, which are crucial for Turkey and its regional agenda in Syria.
Background:
Since the start of Turkey's intervention in northern Syria, through operations like "Euphrates Shield" and "Olive Branch," its primary objective was to secure its southern border from the perceived threats posed by Kurdish forces, particularly the People's Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey considers a branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a group it designates as terrorist. Additionally, Turkey aimed to establish a "safe zone" to resettle Syrian refugees currently in Turkey, who number in the millions.
In this context, Ankara has supported a range of armed factions in these areas, most of which are Sunni Islamist groups. Initially, the goal was to use them as local forces to fight the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian regime. However, after taking control of vast areas in northern Syria, including Afrin, internal conflicts began to emerge between these factions themselves.
Recent Clashes:
The violent confrontations between the Joint Forces and factions such as the "Northern Hawks Brigade" and "Al-Jabha Al-Shamiya" reflect internal competition between these factions for influence and resources. They also indicate a shift in Turkey's strategy, as it appears to be moving towards restructuring its local alliances.
Groups like the "Northern Hawks Brigade" and "Al-Jabha Al-Shamiya" are part of the Turkish-backed entities, which include a mix of Sunni Arab and Turkmen fighters. However, there seems to be a new trend in Ankara’s approach, favoring Turkmen factions. This shift can be interpreted as an attempt by Turkey to strengthen factions that are more loyal to its long-term interests and share a common ethnic and cultural identity.
Reasons for Turkey's Support of Turkmen Factions:
1. Ethnic Identity: Turkey aims to consolidate its presence in strategically important areas by supporting Turkmen groups, who serve as a cultural and political bridge between Turkey and these regions. By doing so, Turkey seeks to ensure strong and lasting loyalty from local forces with whom it shares ethnic ties.
2. Territorial Control: Turkmen factions may be seen as more reliable for maintaining control over key areas, ensuring that these territories remain under Turkish influence in a sustainable manner, especially as international and domestic pressures grow for Turkey to withdraw or reduce its military presence.
3. Security and Reducing Chaos: Sunni Arab factions have become a source of chaos and internal conflicts, hindering efforts to stabilize the areas under Turkish control. Supporting Turkmen factions could reduce these clashes and provide Turkey with a more stable and aligned local ally.
4. Balancing Local Power: Turkey may be concerned about the growing influence of Sunni Arab factions, which could develop into an independent force or even align with other actors (such as Qatar or other Gulf states). Therefore, Turkey is pushing towards building alliances with the Turkmen to ensure a balance of power within the territories under its control.
5. Resettlement Plans: The project of resettling Syrian refugees in the planned "safe zone" requires a local military force to manage the areas and ensure the implementation of Turkish political and ethnic plans. This may explain Ankara’s push to support factions that align with its political and ethnic agendas.
Effects of the Conflict on the Ground:
1. Instability: The conflicts between the factions will continue to fuel instability in the occupied areas, delaying reconstruction efforts or the return of residents. Turkey, facing international pressure for its policies in Syria, may find itself in a difficult position if these conflicts persist.
2. Tensions between Arab and Turkmen Elements: Turkey’s preference for Turkmen factions at the expense of Sunni Arab factions could create new ethnic tensions, further complicating the local landscape and weakening the ability of Turkish-backed factions to address challenges such as threats from the SDF or the Syrian regime.
3. Local and Regional Reactions: This shift may provoke discontent among the local population in these predominantly Arab areas, and it could also lead to tensions with regional actors who support some of the Arab factions, such as Qatar. Turkey is walking a tightrope in its attempt to balance territorial control with maintaining its alliances.
Conclusion:
The conflicts in the Turkish-occupied areas west of the Euphrates reflect the complexities of Turkey’s policy in Syria. Turkey is attempting to reshape local balances in favor of Turkmen factions in an effort to strengthen its influence and ensure loyalty from local forces that align with its long-term strategies. However, this approach could have unintended consequences, such as deepening ethnic conflicts and increasing chaos in the areas under its control, hindering stability and complicating Turkey’s position in northern Syria.
