A geopolitical reading of Ibrahim Kaban
The Americans, in every operation in their presence in northern and eastern Syria, focus on the Iranian movements represented by the militias at the meeting point between Iraq and Syria, while the Syrian Democratic Forces focus on the Turkish threats that have become the greatest threat to their existence at a time when the Iranian militias do not pose a direct threat despite the Iranian-Turkish agreements in Syria, because the Turkish regime continues to enable the activities and results of the Astana agreements with the Russians, the Syrian regime, and the Iranians, with the aim of planning to overthrow the Autonomous Administration areas supported militarily by the United States and the coalition countries.
The historical process highlights the importance of Turkey to NATO, and also shows the reality of the historical Turkish alliance with the United States and the European Union on geopolitical and military issues related to the interests of the alliance and its strategies in confronting the eastern bloc, which crystallized again with the Russian military and Chinese economic expansion.
While the United States and the Western powers cannot abandon the Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq due to the mutual need that provides an American field presence on the scene after the expansion of extremist groups supported by pro-Russian regimes and the transformation of the Shiite and Sunni Arab regions into a focus for mobilization against the Western presence and its project for the Middle East. the new.
The Syrian regime has completely lost control over its regions due to the deterioration of the economy and Russian-Iranian hegemony, and it is likely that there is an American-Russian plan to change it during the coming stages by maintaining state institutions, in exchange for preserving the interests of Russia and America while preserving Turkey’s share in destabilizing the security and stability of the Kurdish regions. Syrian.
Russia focuses on the ports and strategic sites extending between the coast and the central regions of Syria, while Iran is very interested in the border areas with Iraq, especially the desert corridor. The United States of America and the international coalition use this region as an arena for aerial bombardment by Israeli aircraft, which is believed to be related to American-Western-Arab approval due to the threats posed by Iran to the Arabian Gulf on the one hand, and the fear of complete control over Syria after Iraq and parts of Yemen after the amplification of the Houthi movement. And the monopolization of the Lebanese decision-making process through Hezbollah, which now constitutes a state parallel to the Lebanese government and army.
Contact lines
The Syrian internal circumstances created three conflicting axes that were managed by international and regional influences and activities. Although the Syrian armed opposition and its umbrella lost its political decision in favor of Turkish hegemony, the Syrian regime became hostage to the influence of the Russian and Iranian presence in the scene, in exchange for the hot relations at the military level between the international coalition led by the United States. The US and the Syrian Democratic Forces, which form a pillar of the Western American presence in northern and eastern Syria.
During the previous periods, the American effort was focused on producing a rapprochement between the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian opposition controlled by the Arak, in exchange for Russia’s attempts to build common interests between the Syrian and Turkish regimes. Until this moment, Russia and Iran have succeeded in distancing the Turks from the Americans in the issue of exaggerating Turkish fears about the development of the Kurdish situation in northern Syria, in exchange for creating a rapprochement with the Syrian regime, and opening the bazaar of selling the opposition to the regime in exchange for it abandoning any rapprochement or recognition of the Autonomous Administration. This includes floating the regime and ending the Kurdish bogeyman.
The Americans cannot sever their relations with the Turks because they are rooted for many decades, while the Russians found Turkish fears over the generations of Kurdish developments in Syria a gateway to distance them from the Americans in the Syrian crisis. Over the past seven years, Russia has launched a torrent of accusations against the Americans and Europeans for supporting them, according to its claim, in establishing a Kurdish state in the north. And eastern Syria, which Turkey finds a real dilemma for its ambitions and national security.
On the other hand, the American-Russian bazaar continues to attract the Turkish factor in Syria, while Turkey eliminated the Syrian opposition in favor of the Assad regime. The Americans turned a blind eye to the Turkish bombing with drones on some sites within the Autonomous Administration areas. These tenders are not new, but rather the result of the Turkish-Russian alliance in the process of handing over Afrin in exchange for Ghouta and some other areas during 2018, at a time when America handed over Ras al-Ayn and Tal Abyad in exchange for pleasing Turkey and alleviating its pressure during 2019. This strategy may continue during the coming stages by allowing Turkey to conduct air operations with drones in exchange for integrating the Syrian opposition further with the Syrian regime and directing all forces to destroy the areas of self-administration through assassination operations and creating strife within the Arab tribes street in the northeast.
Basing this rapprochement on removing the Syrian Democratic Forces and directing all guns towards them to fight them, because the alliance of two local forces in Syria by nature results in victory over the third, and more precisely, it facilitates the process of overthrowing the regime. However, the Syrian regime, with Russian motivation, created a balance in the relationship with Turkey and in the same context with the Autonomous Administration. In northern and eastern Syria, creating complete separation between the opposition and this administration, in exchange for not recognizing the Autonomous Administration region in exchange for restricting the opposition-controlled areas under Turkish sponsorship. In the same context, the rapprochements that took place with Turkey arose on the basis of a divergence between the Syrian regime and the Autonomous Administration in northern and eastern Syria. More precisely, the Syrian regime cannot build relations and recognize the Autonomous Administration in exchange for reducing the ability of the Syrian opposition against the regime by Turkish action, and directing all available capabilities into the hands of the two Turkish regimes. And the Syrians, through the armed opposition and regime forces, against the Syrian Democratic Forces. This move is called the Astana Outcomes and the joint operations rooms led by Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the Syrian regime.
The American grip and possible consequences
The Americans cannot prevent all types of Turkish military operations against the Kurdish region in Syria, but they prevent the Turks from using NATO weapons, F-16 aircraft, and other American technologies against the Syrian Kurds. Therefore, we always find the Turkish resort to using locally manufactured “Bayraktar” drones, and activating the intelligence role by building a special cell that provides the Turks with information.
In return, the United States does not allow its allies in the Syrian Democratic Forces to use its weapons against Turkey, especially those that enable it to shoot down Turkish drones, because it needs accurate missiles that they do not have, and with no American supply to them, the American course in the relationship with the two parties is to prevent them from using American weapons. .
This strategy is called the partial embargo implemented by the Americans in the face of the Turkish aggression, and the Turkish side resorting to the intelligence mechanism and carrying out special operations.
The Syrian regime is unable to carry out military operations against the Syrian Democratic Forces, or conduct a ground invasion, because the American and Western presence poses a real dilemma for any step in this direction. The Russians are also unable to enable the Syrian regime to expand within the Autonomous Administration areas due to the American presence, the distribution of the areas, and the resulting balance between those involved in Syria and the local Syrian military groups.
Also expected
During the ongoing conflict, the United States may operate a new mechanism in moving matters, by allowing the Labor Party to launch a military strike into the Turkish depths in exchange for allowing American-made Turkish aircraft to bomb the Kurdish areas inside Iraq and Syria.
The purpose of this strategy is to make a shift within Turkey, and at the same time give a warning to the Syrian Democratic Forces not to make any new rapprochements with Russia. It is a process of reward and punishment for Turkey and the Syrian Democratic Forces, because both forces fear America. If the United States continues to prevent Turkey from fighting the Kurds, this means giving the Kurds the opportunity to empower their influence inside Syria, and if the United States abandons the Syrian Democratic Forces, this means the end of these forces. It did not find another ally like Russia, for example, and this possibility is not possible due to the Russians signing memorandums of understanding with Turkey, Iran, and the Syrian regime.
Results
Therefore, the Syrian regime remains dependent on these American-Russian agreements, and Turkish attempts to penetrate or exploit some circumstances will not exceed the limits set for them by the Americans and Russians. Also, all Syrian local forces (the Syrian Democratic Forces - the Syrian regime - the armed opposition groups) do not have the decision to move outside the map available to them resulting from Western-American agreements, and the Turkish move against the Syrian Democratic Forces will not go beyond bombing with drones.
This process, by its nature, results from societal separation within Syria, and the stabilization of existing entities due to military circumstances, especially since the situation in southern Syria has taken on a character similar to those in areas outside the control of the Syrian regime. Thus, Syria is moving towards enabling results on the ground.
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